Information, Multifaceted Forest Ownership and Timber Supply

Existing decision support systems (DSS) do not account for forest owner heterogeneity, nor do they explicitly model the reaction of forest owners to policy. Hence, current DSS are suitable for response analysis, but much less useful for policy impact assessment or forecasting. The current study presents a theoretical model of harvesting behavior which provides the basis for a simulation model, Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA), useful for analyzing how timber supply and forest characteristics are affected when forest owners differ as to responsiveness to information, risk aversion, and patience as regards postponement of harvesting revenues. The simulation results clearly indicate that the model is well adapted for considering forest owner heterogeneity when assessing the impact of policy on the inter-temporal development of forest resources and timber market conditions. Finally, it is outlined how EVA could integrate forest owner specific harvesting behavior in an augmented Decision Support System (DSS), thus addressing the inability of DSS operational at pan-European level to model the interaction between policy and forest management decisions.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

The opinions of some stakeholders on the European Union Timber Regulation (EUTR): an analysis of secondary sources

The EU Timber Regulation (EUTR) is the most recent effort by the European Union (EU) to curb imports of illegally sourced timber. The regulation raises important questions concerning the international timber trade. In order to successfully implement this regulation it is of paramount importance to classify the actors concerned, and examine how they regard it. The current study records and summarizes opinion statements of stakeholders as found in different online publications. Though the problem of illegal logging and its associated trade is acknowledged by all parties, there are concerns as to whether the EUTR is the proper instrument to address this issue. Whilst some stakeholders see the EUTR as advantageous for their businesses, others see it as an impediment. Law enforcement, lack of guidance, and bureaucracy were other issues raised. The trade-off between effective legislation and ease of trade was also highlighted. Transparent and consistent application of the EUTR, with clear guidelines for exerting due diligence, should diminish the degree of possible unwanted side-effects such as trade diversion and substitution of temperate timber for tropical timber.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

European Union Timber Regulation Impact on International Timber Markets

The trade of illegal timber, often from illegal logging, has severe environmental, social and economic consequences. The EU’s response to this problem came with the Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. In March 2013, an additional step was taken by implementing the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR). The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of sustainable forest management will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In the first year of the EUTR there are positive impacts, of which the most important is awareness of the disastrous situation with illegal logging, driven by exports of illegal timber. Another positive development is tropical timber exporters documenting the legality of their wood exports. Yet another positive feature is establishment of due diligence systems by EU importers. However, there are considerable problems for ensuring legal trade; for example the lack of comprehensive documentation of origin and legality. Analysis of recent trends establishes changes in the European timber trade in terms of sourcing, substitution, diversion to less-demanding countries. Short-term forecasts of market trends and changes will enable further policy assessment to achieve the objectives of improved legality in international timber markets.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

An integrated modelling framework for the forest-based bioeconomy

This paper describes the conceptual design of a modelling framework to assess scenarios for the forest-based bioeconomy. The framework consists of a core set of tools: a partial equilibrium model for the forest sector, a forestry dynamics model for forest growth and harvest and a wood resources balance sheet. The framework can be expanded to include an energy model, a land use model, cost-supply curves and a forest ownership decision model. This partially integrated, multi-disciplinary modelling framework is described, with particular emphasis on the structure of the variables to be exchanged between the framework tools. The data exchange is subject to a series of integrity checks to ensure that the model is computing the correct information in the correct format and order of elements.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

European Union Timber Regulation Impacts Global Hardwood Markets

Implemented in March 2013, the EU Timber Regulation is affecting hardwood exporters and importers. The EUTR requires proof of timber’s origin and legality to ensure that no illegal timber is imported into the EU. The EUTR is part of the EU’s Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Action Plan, with its specific goal to end illegal logging, thereby improving sustainability of forest resources. To this end the EU intends to block imports of any wood or wood product which comes from unknown sources. Certification of SFM will help EU importers minimize risk, which is an essential part of their required due diligence system. Monitoring organizations are established to assist trade associations and businesses to construct comprehensive due diligence systems. National competent authorities are designated to follow the trade of the new FLEGT-licensed timber and timber products. In 2013, the first year of the EUTR, there are positive impacts, of which the most important is awareness of the disastrous situation with illegal logging, driven by exports of illegal timber. Another positive development is tropical timber exporters documenting the legality of their wood exports. Yet another positive feature is establishment of due diligence systems by EU importers. However, there are considerable problems to ensuring legal trade. For example, China exports primary- and secondary-processed hardwood products to Europe, based on imported logs which most often do not have comprehensive documentation of their origin and legality. Other problems exist too, and the implementation of the EUTR may eventually be defined similar to the US Lacey Act Amendment, i.e. by the courts of law.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat

Behavioral Modelling in a Decision Support System

Considering the variety of attitudes, objectives and behaviors characterizing forest owners is crucial for accurately assessing the impact of policy and market drivers on forest resources. A serious shortcoming of existing pan-European Decision Support Systems (DSS) is that they do not account for such heterogeneity, consequently disregarding the effects that this might have on timber supply and forest development. Linking a behavioral harvesting decision model—Expected Value Asymmetries (EVA)—to a forest resource dynamics model—European Forestry Dynamics Model (EFDM)—we provide an example of how forest owner specific characterization can be integrated in a DSS. The simulation results indicate that the approach holds promise as regards accounting for forest owner behavior in simulations of forest resources development. Hence, forest owner heterogeneity makes the distribution of forest land on owner types non-trivial, as it affects harvesting intensity and, subsequently, inter-temporal forest development.JRC.H.3-Forest Resources and Climat